Thursday, August 22, 2024

Grumpy Trumpy



Texas could be more competitive in the 2024 election than previously thought, according to a new poll which shows Donald Trump might be at risk of losing the state.
Most surveys conducted among likely voters in Texas before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in late July had shown former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, significantly ahead.

But Biden's exit and Vice President Kamala Harris' rise to the top of the Democratic ticket has upended the race, with Harris enjoying a surge in polling.

A poll by the University of Houston Hobby School and Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs released in July had Trump nine points ahead of Biden. That survey, conducted between June 20 and July 1, found 49 percent were supporting Trump while 40 percent were backing Biden.

But the latest survey by the schools has Trump ahead of Harris by just about five points. While the survey could be an outlier, it suggests the race in Texas, which has reliably voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1980, could be tighter than previously anticipated. But if the trend continues over the next two months Trump could lose the Lone Star State.




Who would have thought that possibility could even emerge.  

I had to check, but I was right, the last time Texas voted for a Democrat in the presidential race was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Kamala Harris might be able to put that state in play.  Oh how the self-important have fallen.  What do you think Convicted Felon Donald Trump's morning was like today?  And who had to tell him that news about Texas?  I feel sorry for whomever got tasked with that.  




The reason for the major shift is the fact that Trump's lead among independents in Texas has shrunk dramatically, from being up 24 points to being up now by just 2 points. 

Meanwhile, Republicans got an even worse omen in the Senate polling as the poll has Texas Senator Ted Cruz up just 2 points against his Democratic challenger, Collin Allred. Given the fact that this is just a 2 point race two months before Election Day, it is not inconceivable that Allred would be able to make up the ground between now and November 5th and expand the Senate map for Democrats. 

If Vice President Harris is able to run close in Texas, even without pulling off a major electoral upset, it would not bode well for Trump in other states. 




Last month, Donald Trump and his team were still predicting blue states like Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey and New Mexico could become battlegrounds this fall. Now, he’s shoring up a purple one.

On Wednesday, Trump made his third visit in four weeks to North Carolina — a state he won twice and where he was solidly leading President Joe Biden in polling over the last year.

Trump’s visit here, tucked between campaign stops this week in several swing states that he lost in 2020 while Democrats gathered in Chicago for their convention, was another sign of the dramatic change in his electoral fortunes after Vice President Kamala Harris moved to the top of the ticket.

Trump’s most loyal supporters in Asheboro, a ruby-red patch of the state, lined up for hours to attend, showing the strength of his MAGA base. It was also his first outdoor rally since surviving an attempted assassination last month, and law enforcement officers with rifles were more noticeable than usual on the airplane hangar roofs around the rally site.

Outside of his tightly secured rally, though — past the vendors hawking red caps and flags on the rural road leading to Trump’s event — Republicans admit that the changed dynamics of the race in North Carolina are striking. In interviews with several longtime GOP officials, operatives and strategists in the state, each said their money is still on Trump to win the state.

But they acknowledged that, as of now, such a victory would likely only be narrow. And they expressed concern about what the decreased Trump margins would mean for other down ballot races in the state, particularly Republicans’ efforts to flip the governor’s office.

Wearing a “Let’s Go Brandon” shirt at the rally, Geanie McDowell, 46, of Asheboro, said she’s concerned about the increasing difficulty to win the state with Harris at the top of the ticket.

“It’s become a tighter race. Now we’re worried Kamala might take the lead,” McDowell said, explaining that because “she’s younger, and she’s a woman,” Harris may appeal to some voters in a new way.

What should Trump do to keep a Harris win from happening? “Keep his mouth shut,” McDowell said




Oh, Ms. McDowell, when has Mr. Trump ever been able to "keep his mouth shut"?  

Kate Plummer (NEWSWEEK) has an article that is important but I honestly cannot follow.  A donor to the Trump campaign is being sued.  There are too many names I do not know and services I do not know about and Bitcoin for me to follow.  I need it simplified.  If you see simplified version, please let me know.  And this is not me calling out Ms. Plummer.  It is an important article but the problem is me.  I am that old dog now and I am refusing to go to outside.  :D  Seriously, though, there are truly too many new things in that article -- people, billing issues, Bitcoin -- that are too new to me to follow.  The problem is me.


One of the defining characteristics of Donald Trump’s politics is the extent to which he positions himself as the arbiter of identity. Trump insists to his supporters that he will make America great again, necessarily defining “America” in restrictive, exclusionary terms. He polices what counts as “American” or “patriotic” in the same way: Those terms apply only to those who comport with his politics or, more broadly, support his candidacy.

At least he has some claim to authority on those metrics. He is American and lives in America. But he has also increasingly taken it upon himself to determine who is authentically Jewish and what constitutes authentic Judaism — an obviously fraught enterprise born of his ongoing irritation that there are people out there who don't particularly like him.

The trigger for Trump’s insistence on this point, one offered both in an interview and a social media post in recent days, is the war in Gaza. The terrorist attack in Israel on Oct. 7 and Israel’s military response increased the salience of views of Israel in American politics. That escalated further this year as colleges responded to protests on their campuses. Trump has long presented himself as a historically unique champion for Israel and the Jewish people, so he jumped right into the fray.

He hasn't made much headway, largely because Jewish Americans vote heavily Democratic. What's more, Trump's positions on Israel are generally more reflective of the views of evangelical Christians, many of whom view the nation through the lens of Christian prophecy. That he views himself as having delivered on what his Jewish allies want — which isn't necessarily what Jewish Americans want more broadly — without seeing Jewish support surge appears to frustrate him. So he simply writes off those other Jewish Americans as not (or at least insufficiently) Jewish.


I swear, as an American Jew, we have got to institute a cover charge and hire a bouncer to keep these  goyim out of the club so they will stop thinking they can speak for us.


This is C.I.'s "Iraq snapshot" for today:


Thursday, August 22, 2024.  Day three of the convention found the momentum building.


Night three of the DNC convention in Chicago saw more speakers including Oprah Winfrey.



Good evening everybody!  Who says you can't go home again? 

After watching the Obamas last night, that was some epic fire, wasn't it? Some epic fire. We're now so fired up we can't wait to leave here and do something. And what we're going to do is to elect Kamala Harris as the next President of the United States.

I am so honored to have been asked to speak on tonight's theme about what matters most to me, to you, and all of us Americans: Freedom. There are people who want you to see our country as a nation of us against them. People who want to scare you, who want to rule you. People who'd have you believe that books are dangerous and assault rifles are safe, that there's a right way to worship and a wrong way to love. People who seek first to divide and then to conquer. But here's the thing, when we stand together, it is impossible to conquer us.

In the words of an extraordinary American, the late Congressman John Lewis, he said, "No matter what ship our ancestors arrived on, we are all in the same boat now." Congressman Lewis knew very well how far this country has come, because he was one of the brilliant Americans who helped to get us where we are. But he also knew that the work is not done, the work will never be done, because freedom isn't free. America is an ongoing project. It requires commitment, it requires being open to the hard work and the heart work of democracy. And every now and then, it requires standing up to life's bullies.

I know this. 

I've lived in Mississippi, in Tennessee, in Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiana, Florida, Hawaii, Colorado, California -- California and sweet home Chicago, Illinois. I have actually traveled this country from the redwood forest -- love those redwoods -- to the Gulf Stream waters. I've seen racism and sexism and income inequality and division. I've not only seen it --  at times, I've been on the receiving end of it.  But more often than not, what I've witnessed and experienced are human beings, both conservative and liberal, who may not agree with each other, but who would still help you in a heartbeat if you were in trouble. These are the people who make me proud to say that I am an American. They are the best of America.


And despite what some would have you think, we are not so different from our neighbors. When a house is on fire, we don't ask about the homeowner's race or religion. We don't wonder who their partner is or how they voted. No, we just try to do the best we can to save them. And if the place happens to belong to a childless cat lady, well, we try to get that cat out too.  Cause we are a country of people who work hard for the money. We wish our brothers and sisters well, and we pray for peace. 

We know all the old tricks and tropes that are designed to distract us from what actually matters, but we are beyond ridiculous tweets and lies and foolery. These are complicated times, people, and they require adult conversation. And I welcome those conversations because civilized debate is vital to democracy, and it is the best of America. 

Now, over the last couple of nights, we have all seen brave people walk onto the stage and share their most private pain. Amanda and Josh, Kaitlyn, Hadley -- they told us their stories of rape and incest and near-death experiences from having the state deny them the abortion that their doctor explained was medically necessary. And they told us these things for one reason, and that is to keep what happened to them from happening to anybody else. Because if you do not have autonomy over this --  over this -- if you cannot control when and how you choose to bring your children into this world and how they are raised and supported, there is no American dream. 


The women and men who are battling to keep us from going back to a time of desperation and shame and stone-cold fear, they are the new freedom fighters. And make no mistake: They are the best of America.

I want to talk now about somebody who's not with us tonight: Tessie Prevost Williams. Was born in New Orleans, not long after the Supreme Court ruled that segregated public schools were unconstitutional. That was in 1954, same year I was born. But I didn't have to head to first grade at the all-White McDonogh 19 School with a U.S. Marshal by my side, like Tessie did. And when I got to school, the building wasn't empty, like it was for Tessie. You see, rather than allowing McDonogh to be integrated, parents pulled their kids out of the school, leaving only Tessie and two other little Black girls, Gail Etienne and Leona Tate, to sit in a classroom with the windows papered over to block snipers from attacking their six-year-old bodies.

Tessie passed away six weeks ago, and I tell this story to honor her tonight, because she, like Ruby Bridges, and her friends, Leona and Gail -- the New Orleans Four, they were called -- they broke barriers, and they paid dearly for it. But it was the grace and guts and courage of women like Tessie Prevost Williams that paved the way for another young girl, who nine years later became part of the second class to integrate the public schools in Berkeley, California.

And it seems to me that, at school and at home, somebody did a beautiful job of showing this young girl how to challenge the people at the top and empower the people at the bottom. They showed her how to look at the world and see not just what is, but what can be. They instilled in her a passion for justice and freedom and the glorious fighting spirit necessary to pursue that passion.

And soon and very soon -- soon and very soon -- we're going to be teaching our daughters and sons about how this child of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father, two idealistic, energetic immigrants -- immigrants -- how this child grew up to become the 47th President of the United States. That is the best of America.

Let me tell you this: This election isn't about us and them. 

It's about you and me and what we want our futures to look like. There are choices to be made when we cast our ballot. Now, there's a certain candidate that says, if we just go to the polls this one time, then we'll never have to do it again. Well, you know what? You're looking at a registered independent who is proud to vote again and again and again. Because I'm an American, and that's what Americans do.

 

Voting is the best of America. 

And I have always, since I was eligible to vote, I've always voted my values. And that is what is needed in this election, now more than ever. So I'm calling on all you independents and all you undecideds. You know this is true. You know I'm telling you the truth, that values and character matter most of all -- in leadership and in life. 

And more than anything -- you know this is true -- that decency and respect are on the ballot in 2024. 

And just plain common sense. Common sense tells you that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz can give us decency and respect. They're the ones that give it to us.

So, we are Americans. 

We are Americans. 

Let us choose loyalty to the Constitution over loyalty to any individual, because that's the best of America. And let us choose optimism over cynicism, because that's the best of America. And let us choose inclusion over retribution. Let us choose common sense over nonsense, because that's the best of America.

And let us choose the sweet promise of tomorrow over the bitter return to yesterday. We won't go back. We won't be sent back, pushed back, bullied back, kicked back. We're not going back. 

We're not going back. 

We're not going back. 

So, let us choose. Let us choose truth, let us choose honor, and let us choose joy! Because that's the best of America. 

But more than anything else, let us choose freedom. 

Why? 

Because that's the best of America. 

We're all Americans, and together, let's all choose Kamala Harris!


There were many strong speakers yesterday but I think Oprah was the one who stood out the most. The theme was "A Fight For Our Freedoms."  Actress Mindy Kaling hosted the night and looked very elegant and stylish -- something you didn't see at the RNC -- and there were great musical performances by Maren Morris and John Legend and Sheila E.  And Stevie.



The one and only Stevie Wonder.  We're pressed for space but Stevie's a friend of many decades and  we're noting Stevie with the video.  And he really brought it to the floor.

Strong speeches were delivered by Colorado Governor Jared Polis, US House Rep Bennie G. Thompson, US House Rep Hakeem Jeffries, Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi and Senator Cory Booker.  US House Rep Grace Meng was another standout.



As everyone who's been watching this week knows, Monday night ran long.  Grace was one of the people who gave up their time as a result.  But her speech worked better for Wednesday's theme.  There is so much at stake with this election and there is so much more that Donald Trump will do to destroy this country, our rights, our democracy.  It was a theme Pete Buttigieg



We can have freedom or we can have hate.  We can grow better or we can morph into something very ugly.  Pete spoke of how we have seen our lives build and transform:


Right now the other side is appealing to what is smallness within you.  They're telling you that greatness comes from going back to the past.  They're telling you that anyone different from you is a threat.  They're telling you that your neighbor or nephew or daughter who disagrees with you politically isn't just wrong but is now the enemy.  I believe in a better politics, one that finds us at our most decent and open and brave.  The kind of politics that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are offering.  And as you have felt these many days, that kind of politics just feels better to be part of.  There is joy in it as well as power.  And if all of that sounds naive, let me insist that I have come to this view not by way of idealism, but by way of experience, not just the experience of my unlikely career, someone like me serving in Indiana, serving in Washington, serving in uniform. I'm thinking of something much more basic. 
I'm thinking of dinner time at our house in Michigan. When the dog is barking and the air fryer is beeping and the mac and cheese is boiling over, and it feels like all the political negotiating experience in the world is not enough for me to get our three-year-old son and our three-year-old daughter to just wash their hands and sit at the table. It's the part of our day when politics seems the most distant, and yet the makeup of our kitchen table, the existence of my family, is just one example of something that was literally impossible as recently as 25 years ago when an anxious teenager growing up in Indiana wondered if he would ever find belonging in this world. This kind of life went from impossible to possible, from possible to real, from real to almost ordinary in less than half a lifetime.  
But that didn't just happen. It was brought about through idealism and courage, through organizing and persuasion and storytelling, and yes, through politics, the right kind of politics, the kind of politics that can make an impossible dream into an everyday reality. I don't presume to know what it's like in your kitchen, but I know as sure as I am standing here that everything in it, the bills you pay at that table, the shape of the family that sits there, the fears and the dreams that you talk about late into the night there, all of it compels us to demand more from our politics than a rerun of some TV wrestling death match.  
So this November, we get to choose. We get to choose our president. We get to choose our policies.  But most of all, we will choose a better politics, a politics that calls us to our better selves and offers us a better everyday. That is what Kamala Harris and Tim Walz represents. That is what Democrats represent.


The most anticipated speech of the night was that of Governor Tim Walz, the running mate of presidential nominee Kamala Harris.






Tim Walz is running for vice-president, but for a while on Wednesday night, it felt like he was campaigning to be the nation’s high school football coach.

Before he spoke, roughly a dozen of the players on the team he helped coach to a Minnesota state championship decades ago ran on stage, some wearing their old high-school jerseys, bouncing to the blasting horns of a marching band.

Once Mr Walz did appear, delegates in the packed arena waved signs that read “Coach Walz” – and the crowd chanted “coach, coach, coach!”

As this was Mr Walz's first significant opportunity to introduce himself to the nation, his speech was heavy on his personal story – his time as a football coach, of course, but also his upbringing, his enlistment in the Army National Guard, his work as a high-school teacher, and his service as a congressman and governor.

During parts of his speech his daughter Hope, 23, and son Gus, 17, were seen in tears in the front row of the arena. "That's my dad!" Gus mouthed as the television camera focused on him.



The DNC issued this press release:

Tonight, during night three of the 2024 Democratic National Convention, two new videos aired: one featuring five of Governor Tim Walz’s former students from Mankato West High School and another featuring his fellow veterans, including those who served alongside him in the United States National Guard.

In these videos, the country heard more about Governor Walz’s record of military service and storied commitment to improving the lives of American veterans, servicemembers, and their families. Encouraged by his students to run for Congress, Walz has a long history of teaching and coaching in Minnesota and Nebraska.

Students remember how Governor Walz changed their lives:

WATCH HERE

 

Fellow service members highlighted Governor Walz’s record of military service and commitment to improving the lives of American veterans:

WATCH HERE  




The convention has been something to see and the DNC issued this press release about Tuesday night's viewership:

CHICAGO – For the second night in a row, the 2024 Democratic National Convention pulled in a mammoth TV and online audience as Americans across the country tuned in to see the excitement building behind the Harris-Walz ticket. The second night of the DNC featured an energetic celebratory roll call followed by a surprise appearance from Vice President Harris live from her rally in Milwaukee. Inside the hall, former First Lady Michelle Obama, President Barack Obama, and Democrats took to the stage to underscore the stakes of this election and make the case for the Harris-Walz ticket.

Democrats are meeting people where they are, making the convention available to Americans inside and outside the hall as we tell our story to the country.  

Broadcast:

  • On TV, the second night of the DNC averaged 20.6 million viewers across 12 networks.
    • This is well above the second night of the RNC, which averaged 14.8 million viewers on its second night – and now for two nights in a row, the DNC has beaten the RNC’s ratings on TV.

Streaming:

  • Across DNC/Harris-Walz online platforms, the first two nights of the convention were streamed by over 13 million people.

Digital Content:

  • The convention garnered 55 million views on partner-created content on the second night – building on the 30 million views from the first night.
    • The 2024 Democratic National Convention credentialed over 200 content creators with a cumulative reach of 169 million people.

“The second night of the Democratic National Convention showcased the enthusiasm and energy behind Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and their vision for the future,” said DNCC Senior Director of Communications Matt Hill. “There’s a simple reason why more Americans are tuning into the Democratic National Convention than Donald Trump’s MAGA convention: the American people believe in the Harris-Walz vision for a brighter future and they want to support a campaign built on hope, joy, and progress – not a campaign built on extremism, fear, and grievance.”

The first night of the DNC reached over 57 million people, and numbers from the second night show an audience well exceeding 81 million people. Tonight, Americans will get to hear directly from Governor Tim Walz about his commitment to fighting for our freedoms.

The 2024 Democratic National Convention is giving Americans more ways to watch and engage than ever before. The 2024 Democratic National Convention is being streamed on over a dozen platforms as a part of its efforts to reach Americans everywhere they are. For the first time in convention history, the convention is hosting vertical streams across TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, in addition to the convention being streamed online on a variety of platforms including Amazon Prime Video, TV device apps such as Apple TV and Roku TV, and traditional television broadcasts.

 





As Kamala Harris campaign continues to gain momentum,  Robert Kennedy Junior's campaign continues to collapse, Brent D. Griffiths,Alice Tecotzky (BUSINESS INSIDER0 reports:


Kennedy, whose national polling has crashed, refunded nearly $1 million to Nicole Shanahan, the Silicon Valley lawyer who joked she was picked to be Kennedy's running mate solely due to the size of her bank account. The repayment is even more notable given that the campaign only has $3.9 million on hand and the debt it owes nearly equals the money in its bank account.

According to the filing, Kennedy's campaign brought in just over $5.6 million last month and spent more than $7.2 million. Much of the money went toward trying to get Kennedy's name on ballots across the country, reflecting his recent legal challenges in New York and difficulty amassing enough signatures to appear on the ballot in key swing states.

Kennedy's campaign also owes roughly $3.5 million to private security executive Gavin de Becker.


Junior's campaign has declared he will be making a big announcement on Friday that the whole country will want to hear.  Really, not sure if I believe in assisted suicide.  But I will be listening and so will a number of a lot of us in the industry as we determine whether or not Cheryl has a future in it and whether or not we're going to continue to leak embarrassing stories about Junior to the media.  

Junior apparently wants to embrace the hate of Donald Trump, JD Vance, Ron DeSantis, etc, etc, etc.  Well that will truly make clear that Junior is no Robert F. Kennedy, just a pale, tiny, scared hate merchant.


On elections, the man who would be king clown.  Doo-Doo Ron DeSantis as Mike dubbed him.  DeSantis is back in the news because elections are taking place and DeSantis is not doing well. Greg Owen (LGBTQ NATION) notes:


Two “parental rights” candidates running for Florida school board seats who were endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and the anti-LGBTQ+ group Moms for Liberty (M4L) were crushed in their elections on Tuesday, while a third is headed to a runoff.

Overall, out of 23 total school board endorsements made by DeSantis, five of his candidates won, 12 lost and six advanced to the November runoff.


Incumbents Laura Hine and Eileen Long held off challengers endorsed by DeSantis and M4L, who hoped to produce a far-right majority on the Pinellas County school board in St. Petersburg.

Unofficial results revealed current school board chair Hine and her colleague Long held their seats after an ugly campaign dominated by the hectoring M4L moms arguing for their “parental rights” agenda.



Moms For Bigotry.  I thought they were unf**able -- look at them -- but then playa Bridget Ziegler let the whole world know that she and her husband invited all the freaks into their shared bed.  That news also revealed that Bridget partakes of the love that dare not speak its name in Florida thanks the likes of DeSantis and Bridget.   The hypocrites were once riding high on their high horses, "But then there were some potential signs that constant attacks on people of color or LGBTQ+ people were not winning strategies after all. Most notably, DeSantis, once seen as a formidable challenge to Trump for the top of the Republican ticket, ran on bringing his Florida agenda to the whole country and flamed out very early in the 2024 primaries," Nathalie Baptist (HUFFINGTON POST) notes.
 


Two years has been a political eternity for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

In 2022, when DeSantis was at his peak political powers and openly flirting with running for president, he used his sway to start the process of remaking local school boards into much more conservative-leaning bodies. During the that year's midterm elections, when DeSantis won re-election by a historic near 20-points, he backed 30 school board candidates, and only five lost.


Now, DeSantis is on the heels of a failed bid for president that tarnished his reputation nationally, and the power of his endorsement in Florida appears to be waning. DeSantis backed 23 school board candidates who ran during Tuesday night’s primaries, nearly half of whom did not win, while six others were forced into runoffs.

DeSantis remains a popular governor in an increasingly red-leaning state that just saw Republicans take a more than 1 million person voter registration advantage. But the primary night losses are among the biggest in-state political headwinds he has faced in years.

DeSantis-backed candidates also suffered losses in other races, while he notched victories in some state legislative contests. But the school board elections provide a snapshot of how the political dynamic has shifted for him.

DeSantis has become the first governor in state history to become so heavily involved in what have historically been considered sleepy and technically nonpartisan races.

 
Khaleda Rahman (NEWSWEEK) notes:

[Incumbent Eileen] Long said the results were a rebuke of DeSantis' agenda.

"People want sanity. People want common sense. And people believe we should educate everyone," Long told The Associated Press. "The people have spoken."



“We sent a message across this state and across this country that governors, number one, should not get involved,” said Pinellas County School Board member Eileen Long, who won re-election Tuesday.

Long, a career teacher, fought off a challenge by a candidate backed by DeSantis and the local chapter of Moms for Liberty in a closely watched race in what’s historically been one of the state’s largest swing counties, which includes St. Petersburg.

Like at school board meetings across Florida, activists aligned with Moms for Liberty in Pinellas have taken to reading aloud explicit passages from books, equating certain teaching materials to pornography and labeling educators as “groomers.”

“I think they’re losing their movement. I really do,” Long told The Associated Press. “People are sick and tired of the mean, nasty stuff that they pull.”

America is rejecting the hate of these people but Junior's gearing it up to endorse it.  

We can reject him along with the other preachers of hate.  And we can watch tonight to hear Kamala explain what's at stake.



The following sites updated:





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