Thursday, June 18, 2020

Don't believe the polls


If you go this Tweet, you will see a photo of very few people gathered for a Joe Biden rally and these words:


This is Joe Biden's first rally in months. Meanwhile there's a million people trying to go to the next Trump rally, yet the polls have Biden leading by 13%.

This is Joe Biden's first rally in months. Meanwhile there's a million people trying to go to the next Trump rally, yet the polls have Biden leading by 13%.
Image

This is Joe Biden's first rally in months. Meanwhile there's a million people trying to go to the next Trump rally, yet the polls have Biden leading by 13%.
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11:49 AM

You should not believe the polls.

I cannot remember if it was late August or early September when C.I. declared that Donald Trump would be the next president.  But it was well before the 2016 election and the media had already called it for Hillary Clinton. 

C.I. said it would be Mr. Trump and she explained why everyone was missing it.  The media had made Mr. Trump toxic.  You were supposed to be ashamed if you supported him.  They did not play fair and there was going to be a reaction because of it.  C.I. noted that reaction was that the polls would be off.  Supporters of Mr. Trump, who planned to vote for him in November, were not going to feel comfortable sharing their choices with pollsters -- especially not pollsters who explained that they were polling on behalf of ABC, or THE WASHINGTON POST, or REUTERS, or whatever.

And C.I. was right.  The polls were wrong.

I think we are seeing it again.  But I think there is also a twist here, I think some supporters of the President are lying to pollsters out of glee -- they are delighted to lie to the media.  They are doing it intentionally so that they can prove the media out of touch again.

After 2016, no one should be trusting the polls.  Honestly, they should not trust the media either when it comes to Donald Trump.  The media has not been fair.

I will not be voting for President Trump. I am not trying to trick anyone, I will not be.  I did not vote for him in 2016.  I will most likely vote for Howie Hawkins if he gets the Green Party's presidential nod. 

But even a non-Trump supporter like myself can see that, despite claiming otherwise immediately after the 2016 election, the media never took a hard look at themselves.  They just dug in deeper in their hatred against President Trump and let that distort their coverage.

They have only themselves to blame.

This is C.I.'s "Iraq snapshot:"


Thursday, June 18, 2020.  Turkey continues to terrorize Iraq and a petition is started about Joe Biden.







The Turkish government continues to terrorize the Iraqi people.  XINHUA notes the Turkish government is insisting that the 500 "targets" they have destroyed in Iraq belonged to the PKK.  They are patting themselves on the back for the terrorist operation they have dubbed Operation Claw-Tiger.

Along with bombing northern Iraq, Operation Claw-Tiger has also seen the Turkish government send foot soldiers into Iraq.  That would be an invasion but many in the press try to spruce up the 'news' by using other terms.


Senior Turkish official told Reuters that #Turkey plans to set up more temporary military bases in northern #Iraq after stepping up its strikes against #PKK. He claims that "the effort would ensure border security"


Sundays bombings left dozens of Iraqi children injured and more displaced as Turkey elected to bomb a refugee camp.

Zhelwan Z. Wali (RUDAW) reports that among the 'terrorists' killed so far is Abbas Maghdid, a 30-year-old shepherd who lived in Harir and who, Mayor Ihsan Chalabi states, "had gone out to graze his sheep when Turkish airstrikes hit the spot."  No, he wasn't a terrorist.  He was another civilian killed by the Turkish government while they pretend they are killing PKK fighters.  The Turkish government will, if pattern holds, never mention Abbas Maghdid by name or acknowledge that they murdered an innocent civilian.

Who is the PKK?  Aaron Hess (International Socialist Review) described the PKK in 2008, "The PKK emerged in 1984 as a major force in response to Turkey's oppression of its Kurdish population. Since the late 1970s, Turkey has waged a relentless war of attrition that has killed tens of thousands of Kurds and driven millions from their homes. The Kurds are the world's largest stateless population -- whose main population concentration straddles Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria -- and have been the victims of imperialist wars and manipulation since the colonial period. While Turkey has granted limited rights to the Kurds in recent years in order to accommodate the European Union, which it seeks to join, even these are now at risk."

 

 Stratfor notes, "The escalation of Turkey’s operations against Kurdish militants in northern Iraq has shown Ankara’s willingness to encroach on Iraqi territory, even if it risks damaging ties with Baghdad."


Turkey has regularly targeted PKK military camps in northern Iraq by ground and air, including in large-scale operations in 2007 and 2018.

The recent assault may be an attempt by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to project power, Bakawan said. “Turkey is deeply engaged in the conflicts of Syria and Libya, and hopes to get involved in Yemen,” he told AFP. “It aims to present itself as an essential power when trying to resolve conflicts in the Middle East — and Iraq forms a part of this,” Bakawan added.


Iraq has objected to the violation of its sovereignty and the violation of international law as a result of Turkey's actions.  RUDAW Tweets:

#Iraq's foreign ministry has summoned #Turkey's ambassador, Faith Yildiz, over the continuing military incursion into northern Iraq for the second time this week : Iraq Foreign Ministry




Baghdad Thursday demanded Ankara immediately halt its assault in northern Iraq, where Turkish special forces and helicopters have been targeting Kurdish rebel hideouts.

Turkey early Wednesday launched a cross-border operation into the mountainous regions of northern Iraq where the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), considered by Ankara to be a "terrorist" group, is thought to be hiding out.

Iraq's foreign ministry summoned the Turkish ambassador on Thursday and handed him a "strongly-worded memorandum calling for a halt to such provocative actions".

"We stress that Turkey must stop its bombardment and withdraw its attacking forces from Iraqi territory," the ministry said in a statement.

"We affirm our categorical rejection of these violations."




The letter called on Turkey to stop such "provocative acts and rejected violations," the statement said.

The letter also demanded Turkey to withdraw its forces from the Iraqi territories, which the Turkish forces entered on Wednesday, as well as its former presence in a military camp in Bashiqa area, some 30 km northeast of Nineveh's provincial capital Mosul.

Iraq "retains its legitimate rights to take all measures that will protect its sovereignty and the safety of its people, including demanding the UN Security Council and the regional and international organizations to assume their responsibility," it added.

On Tuesday, Iraqi Foreign Ministry also summoned the Turkish ambassador to Baghdad and handed him a letter of protest over airstrikes on PKK positions in northern Iraq.

On Monday, the Iraqi Joint Operations Command condemned in a statement a series of airstrikes conducted by 18 Turkish warplanes late on Sunday night on refugee camps in Sinjar, some 100 km west of Mosul, and Makhmour, about 60 km southeast of Mosul.


ARAB NEWS notes, "Saudi Arabia condemned Turkish and Iranian aggression against Iraq in Iraq on Thursday."

We'll again note yesterday's report from TASNIM 

The Arab Parliament -- the legislative arm of the Arab League -- on Tuesday denounced Turkey’s recent raids in Iraq, calling on Ankara to respect the sovereignty of its neighbor and put an end to its unilateral military operations there. 

Arab Parliament Speaker Meshaal bin Fahim al-Salami said in a statement that “these actions are an infringement on the sovereignty of Iraq, a flagrant violation of the Charter of the United Nations, international law and international norms, and in violation of Security Council resolutions.”

The statement also voiced support for Iraq’s stance against Turkey’s moves.

Iraqi lawmakers also reacted to the latest developments, condemning Ankara’s operations in a statement and calling on the Baghdad government to take action to protect civilians and stop Turkish violations of the country’s sovereignty.



ARAB NEWS reports this morning:

The UAE has deplored the Turkish and Iranian military interventions in the brotherly state of Iraq, a statement from the foreign ministry said Wednesday.

It said it denounces their violations against the state's sovereignty through aritrikes in northern Iraq.

 "UAE denounced the Turkish and Iranian military interventions in brotherly Iraq, through their bombing of areas in northern Iraq, which constituted a violation of the sovereignty of a sisterly Arab country and led to intimidation and the spread of terror among innocent civilians," a foreign ministry statement said.

The statement affirmed the country’s “unwavering principle in rejecting all interference in the affairs of Arab countries." 



 In the US, there is largely silence.  And pretense.  The only one really raising the issue is neocon Michael Rubin which suggests to the world that we on the left don't actually care.  I care.  I have to wonder at the others who are looking the other way instead of doing their usual generic post that they use to rush into any tragedy temporarily?  I guess they don't feel there's enough media attention in it for them?


These attacks from Turkey come as Iraq's new prime minister has only been in office for one month.  May 7th Mustafa al-Kadhimi became prime minister.  He was not the people's choice.  He was especially not the choice of the protesters.  The US government and the Iranian government liked him.  But can they keep him in power?

Grasp that he came into office looking weak.  This was because of his backing from foreign governments.  It was also because he could not form a Cabinet in 30 days. 


Now he can't defend Iraq?  He's not said a word, please note, about the Turkish military being on the ground in northern Iraq or about the bombings.  He looks weak.

And he looks weak as the Iraqi people are angry.  See ALJAZEERA report below.






The previous prime minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi, please remember, left office because the people wanted him gone.  He was inept and he did nothing.  Mustafa should really be worried about how he's seen by the people he supposedly represents.


Speaking of the way people are seen, we were asked to note this CHANGE.ORG petition started by Avalon Clare about Joe Biden:


JUN 17, 2020 — 

Joe Biden continues to prove that he is both unfit for office and the absolute wrong person to lead our country in this moment in history. Earlier this month he suggested that police could shoot assailants in the leg instead of the heart. There could hardly be a more perfect example of why Biden’s leadership is inept than this quote about shooting people in the leg. We are in the midst of nationwide protests against racism and police brutality, and we’re expected to believe that Joe “shoot em in the leg” Biden is the best the democratic party can do? Indeed, if Biden is our best chance against Trump, it does feel a bit like a shot to the leg. Painful, possibly deadly, and only marginally better than the alternative (if at all). 

In fact, as Branko Marcetic wrote in Jacobin, “There are good reasons to believe passing the baton from Trump to Biden isn’t going to result in any profound change when the next uprising comes — which, between the pandemic, a historic depression, looming food shortages, and the ongoing ravages of climate change, it will certainly do. In fact, if tens of millions of liberals simply switch off and fail to resist the next presidency with the fervor they brought to Trump’s four years, it could end up much worse.”

Between Biden’s role in the 1994 Crime Bill, his opposition to Medicare For All, his record of inappropriate touching, his penchant for lying, and the credible allegation of assault, it could not be more clear that Biden is neither fit for office nor suited for this moment in history. 

I want more from the democratic party, and I know you do, too. In 2016 Nina Turner said, “I’m a democrat, and that’s worth fighting for,” and her words feel more prescient to me now than ever.

After signing and sharing the petition, many of you are wondering what can be done next. First, we must continue talking about Tara Reade and the way she has been smeared by the media. Since my last update, yet another person has come forward corroborating Tara Reade’s story. Joseph Backholm is at least the 8th person to corroborate Reade’s allegations. Additionally, Tracy Clark-Flory has a new piece in Jezebel breaking down the classism in the smear campaign used against Reade. She writes, “Here, facts are not facts, they are selected within a classed frame that implies significance around credibility. That frame reveals the enduring myth of the “perfect victim” and casts histories of abuse and poverty as incriminating evidence.”

I also highly recommend Tracy Clark-Flory’s previous article about Tara Reade, in which she wrote, “Dogged, diligent reporting that seeks relevant corroboration around an allegation is what it looks like for journalists to take sexual assault seriously. But calling up a bunch of landlords and giving them a bullhorn to vent about missed rent payments only contributes to a culture of silence in which the majority of victims never report their assaults (data show that three out of four sexual assaults go unreported). Laura Palumbo, communications director for the National Sexual Violence Resource Center, told Jezebel that there are many reasons victims delay or decide against the disclosure of sexual harassment and assault, among those most relevant here: “fear of not being believed,” “fears of privacy invasions,” and “being made the subject of gossip and slander.” The media is one of the most visible stages on which those fears are exemplified. “Survivors of sexual harassment and assault are often judged by baseless ideas of how ‘real victims’ would or should behave,” said Palumbo. “When harsh judgments and victim-blaming myths play out in media, this has a chilling effect on others speaking up and leaves many survivors feeling triggered and retraumatized.” In this case, it may leave victims to consider just which “aggrieved acquaintances” in their life, whether former landlords or ex-boyfriends, will give a journalist the grabby quote needed for an explosive-sounding headline.”

But aside from sharing articles, what else can we do? I think it is past time to email politicians directly about this. I encourage you to write your own email about why you believe Tara Reade and why you signed this petition. Ask your representatives what they will do to support survivors. Ask them why they have been silent about these allegations. Email the DNC. Email your local representatives. Email the other democratic candidates. We can and must continue to bring attention to this.

Below are a few email addresses of politicians, as well as the DNC, and the websites where you can find contact information for your senators and house representatives:

AOC: us@ocasiocortez.com

Ilhan Omar: Rep.Ilhan.Omar@house.mn

Bernie Sanders: info@berniesanders.com

Elizabeth Warren: info@elizabethwarren.com

DNC: https://democrats.org/contact-us/

Find your house representative: https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative

Contact your senator: https://www.senate.gov/senators/contact

In 2016, thirty-six republicans called for Donald Trump to step down and withdraw his campaign for presidency. Although they were unsuccessful, their prominence and numbers are telling. It is deeply embarrassing that there are more republicans who called for Trump to step down in 2016 than democrats who have so much acknowledged that the allegation against Biden even exists. From Jacobin, “While a diverse array of high-ranking Republicans almost immediately denounced Trump and even called for him to step down, Democratic lawmakers refused to respond to questions about the Biden allegation in the days immediately after it went public, and continued to do so for as long as a month after. In contrast to the GOP, not a single Democrat has yet called for Biden to step down or rescinded their endorsement; not one has condemned Biden’s alleged assault.”

It is time to pressure these democrats to condemn Biden's assault and stand with victims of sexual violence. 

I’ll end with this quote from Christine Rosen’s article for Commentary:

“Going forward, can the public expect the standards that so many in the media have embraced with regard to Reade’s allegations about Biden to be the same ones they will embrace in the future if the accused man isn’t a political ally? Is the bar for credibility when it comes to leveling accusations at prominent Washington figures the new one the mainstream media have set for Tara Reade? Will publications such as the Times, which has frequently reminded readers of the allegations against Trump in their coverage of Reade’s claims against Biden, now do the same by mentioning the Biden accusations when they write anything about claims made against Trump?”




The following sites updated:











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